|
|
A Candlestick “Hanging Man” bar formed in the Dow Industrials on January 8, 2010. The
Hanging Man” is bearish, but requires a lower Closing the next day for confirmation.
Our Indicators, not shown on this chart, contain numerous other bearish signals.
We have been awaiting the top end of this Great Rally of 2009 for many weeks. The Dow has fooled us many times into thinking that, perhaps, “this is the top.”
Nevertheless, we know that the Rally of 2009 has been an upside correction in an underlying bear trend which began in October 2007. It is not a question of “whether” the Rally will end; the only question is “When.”
There is a chance that, this time, it’s the “real thing.” We will be watching intently tomorrow to see whether the Dow does or does not close below last Friday’s Closing price.
.,.,,.
January 10, 2010
William Kurtz
For CandleWave, LLC
info@candlewave.com
http://www.candlewave.com
http://www.candlewaveblog.com
http://www.candelaabra.com
http://www.candelaabrablog.com
After a breathtaking decline from the heights near $1230 per ounce, an upside reversal in Gold is due. The first chart shows two clear Candlestick Upside Reversal Warning Bars – a High-Wave Spinning Top followed by a Hammer, both of which appeared at the bottom of a clear downtrend. The small white Candle represents overnight trading, and appears to be responding to the bullish implications of the Spinning Top and of the Hammer which immediately preceded it.
The second chart shows that the Stochastics are turning up, which is a bullish signal. The third chart (the “Chandelles” chart) demonstrates several indications that prices will now rise: 1) There is a “Paunch” between ADX and Stoch K, which calls for a cure, and we can see that cure now beginning to develop at Stoch K starts to bend up; 2) Chandelle 1 has given Bollinger Percent B a “kick in the ankles,” whereupon Bollinger Percent B (the green line) has started up, together with prices; 3) there is a “Paunch” between Chandelle 1 and Chandelle 2, being in the nature of a “vacuum” which cannot long persist; whereby Chandelle 2 is very low, has flattened out, and will shortly begin to bend up, together with prices as depicted in Candlestick format.
William Kurtz
December 11, 2009
http://www.candlewave.com
http://www.candlewaveblog.com
http://www.candelaabra.com
http://www.candelaabrablog.com 
The Candlestick “Hammer” is a bullish Reversal pattern. On November 27, 2009, a classic “Hammer” pattern emerged in the Dollar/Yen pair. We promptly issued a notice to our Subscribers, wherein we predicted a substantial rise in the Dollar.
The proof is in the pudding. Or is it “in the eating?”
The attached chart shows the result. As of this writing, the Dollar has advanced from its low of 84.80 on November 27 to 90.53, a rise of 6.75%. The “Hammer” Candlestick Reversal Pattern was the tipoff.
William Kurtz
CandleWave, LLC
December 4, 2009
http://www.candlewave.com
http://www.candlewaveblog.com
http://www.candelaabra.com
http://www.candelaabrablog.com
Candlestick “Hanging Man” Plus Island Top Equals Price Decline
The Candlestick “Hanging Man” pattern occurs at the top of a long price ascent. It is marked by a price bar which has a small “real body” at the top of the period’s price range. The pattern is considered to be bearish, but it requires a lower close in the next period for confirmation of the bearishness.
The “Island Top” is not a Candlestick formation per se. It is defined as one or more price bars (almost always more than just one, which has a different name), a gap up at the first bar, and a gap down at the second bar. The Island Top is considered to be bearish.
The attached chart is an example of the Hanging Man and the Island Top occurring at the same time. Note the lower close (in the tall black candle) following the third bar of the Island Top, which was also the Hanging Man.
We think that these two bearish patterns, occurring together, are a predictor of lower prices to come.
William Kurtz
November 19, 2009
http://www.candlewave.com
http://www.candlewaveblog.com
http://www.candelaabra.com
http://www.candelaabrablog.com
The Candlestick “Hanging Man” pattern occurs at the top of a long price ascent. It is marked by a price bar which has a small “real body” at the top of the period’s price range. The pattern is considered to be bearish, but it requires a lower close in the next period for confirmation of the bearishness.
The “Island Top” is not a Candlestick formation per se. It is defined as one or more price bars (almost always more than just one, which has a different name), a gap up at the first bar, and a gap down at the second bar. The Island Top is considered to be bearish.
The attached chart is an example of the Hanging Man and the Island Top occurring at the same time. Note the lower close (in the tall black candle) following the third bar of the Island Top, which was also the Hanging Man.
We think that these two bearish patterns, occurring together, are a predictor of lower prices to come.
William Kurtz
November 19, 2009
http://www.candlewave.com
http://www.candlewaveblog.com
http://www.candelaabra.com
http://www.candelaabrablog.com
We have been waiting a long time for a top in the Great Rally of 2009, which represents neither a “recovery” nor a resumption of the old bull market. Rather, it has been an upside correction of the bear market which began in October 2007. That correction began in March with a series of bullish Candlestick signals, including the “Tokyo Express” pattern which completed on March 10 in the Russell 2000 and in other Indexes as well. The Rally, across most of the major Indexes, has been a big tease. More than once we have thought that it had reached its top and had begun a decline, only to be proven wrong. Even so, we have known from its beginning in early March 2009 that it was always a question of “when” it would come to a top end, never “whether” it would do so.
Now we are beginning to think that the top may really have been made, at the high of Monday, November 16.
Here are a few clues which lead us to think so:
1) The Russell 2000 came close to testing the underside of the trend line drawn from the March and July lows, and then strongly did so on November 16 – and fell back. 2) The Candlestick pattern which is now forming in the Russell 2000 is an incipient Candlestick “ Evening Star,” which is bearish. 3) The ADX Indicator is in a “Pinch” with the Stochastics, a condition which foretells a decline in prices. 4) The Stochastics Custom has already crossed down below the Stoch K and is about to cross the Stoch D.
The Pinch between ADX and the Stochastics are especially telling. A condition such as this cannot long persist. The two Indicators repel each other when they are close, with the inevitable result that Stoch K falls away and prices do, too.
William Kurtz
November 18, 2009
http://www.candlewave.com
http://www.candlewaveblog.com
http://www.candelaabra.com
http://www.candelaabrablog.com
We have been waiting a long time for a top in the Great Rally of 2009, which represents neither a “recovery” nor a resumption of the old bull market. Rather, it has been an upside correction of the bear market which began in October 2007. That correction began in March with a series of bullish Candlestick signals, including the “Tokyo Express” pattern which completed on March 10 in the Russell 2000 and in other Indexes as well.
The Rally, across most of the major Indexes, has been a big tease. More than once we have thought that it had reached its top and had begun a decline, only to be proven wrong. Even so, we have known from its beginning in early March 2009 that it was always a question of “when” it would come to a top end, never “whether” it would do so.
Now we are beginning to think that the top may really have been made, at the high of Monday, November 16.
Here are a few clues which lead us to think so:
1) The Russell 2000 came close to testing the underside of the trend line drawn from the March and July lows, and then strongly did so on November 16 – and fell back.
2) The Candlestick pattern which is now forming in the Russell 2000 is an incipient Candlestick “Evening Star,” which is bearish.
3) The ADX Indicator is in a “Pinch” with the Stochastics, a condition which foretells a decline in prices.
4) The Stochastics Custom has already crossed down below the Stoch K and is about to cross the Stoch D.
The Pinch between ADX and the Stochastics are especially telling. A condition such as this cannot long persist. The two Indicators repel each other when they are close, with the inevitable result that Stoch K falls away and prices do, too.
William Kurtz
November 18, 2009
http://www.candlewave.com
http://www.candlewaveblog.com
http://www.candelaabra.com
http://www.candelaabrablog.com
The Dow Industrials and the other major Indexes were up slightly today, including the NASDAQ Composite. The Industrials appear to be faltering. The Candlestick pattern in the NASDAQ causes us to stop and consider its implications. This particular pattern is a “High-Wave Doji,” which we recognize as a Reversal pattern. The Doji is characterized by an Opening price and a Closing price which are the same, or nearly so. Today, they were only 53 hundredths of a point apart – so the pattern clearly qualifies as a real Doji. We will be looking for a lower Close tomorrow. If we do in fact see a lower Close tomorrow, we would consider that to be confirmation of the Doji’s bearish warning, and we can reasonably expect to see lower prices thereafter. William Kurtz
November 11, 2009
http://www.candlewave.com
http://www.candlewaveblog.com
http://www.candelaabra.com
http://www.candelaabrablog.com
The Dow Industrials and the other major Indexes were up slightly today, including the NASDAQ Composite. The Industrials appear to be faltering. The Candlestick pattern in the NASDAQ causes us to stop and consider its implications.
This particular pattern is a “High-Wave Doji,” which we recognize as a Reversal pattern. The Doji is characterized by an Opening price and a Closing price which are the same, or nearly so. Today, they were only 53 hundredths of a point apart – so the pattern clearly qualifies as a real Doji.
We will be looking for a lower Close tomorrow. If we do in fact see a lower Close tomorrow, we would consider that to be confirmation of the Doji’s bearish warning, and we can reasonably expect to see lower prices thereafter.
William Kurtz
November 11, 2009
http://www.candlewave.com
http://www.candlewaveblog.com
http://www.candelaabra.com
http://www.candelaabrablog.com
Manias Come in Many Colors
In a past century, a particular Mania came in the colors of the Tulip: red and yellow, primarily. One of them came in the color of the South Seas. In 1929, one arrived in the color of paper, in the form of Stock Certificates. In 2000 and 2007, the key colors were those of Stock Certificates, again. And now, in late 2009, three of them have appeared in the colors of Gold, of Silver, and of Green – that of the Dollar Bill.
Actually, the Dollar Bill Mania is a Mirror-Mania, in that investors have relentlessly driven its price down rather than up. The Mirror-Mania is the inverse image of the Gold and Silver Manias, companions that they are, with Gold taking the lead position. Imagine Gold as the Lone Ranger, and Silver as Tonto. Interestingly, the Lone Ranger’s horse was named “Silver.”
The signs of a Gold Mania are all around us. It has been bid up to prices never before seen, in a frenzy of buying by “investors” large and small. We know that we are dealing with a Mania when the Government of India exchanges U.S. Dollars for Gold at precisely the wrong time; when Harrods offers physical Gold in various shapes and sizes “off the shelf;” when – irrationally and correlatively – the value of the Dollar Index has been driven to new Lows; when buying happens in anticipation of an inflation which is not here and is not coming for a while, because we have to deal with deflation first; when chatter is rampant to the effect that “Gold is the new currency” (i.e., in substitution for the Dollar); and when an agency of the United Nations talks about the necessity of establishing an alternate reserve currency to be based on a “basket” of currencies to be “managed” by the UN itself. All Manias come to an end; and when they do, “the last state of that man is worse than the first.”
The Gold Mania is just about ready to break. When it does, we can look forward to the price of Gold at well below $700 per ounce.
On the chart:
ADX is high and continues to rise;
Stoch K is high;
Bollinger Percent B is high and is beginning to fall off;
Chandelle 1 and Chandelle 2 are in a “Pinch.”
In combination, these factors present an excellent setup for a price decline.
William Kurtz
November 10, 2009
http://www.candlewave.com
http://www.candlewaveblog.com
http://www.candelaabra.com
http://www.candelaabrablog.com
In a past century, a particular Mania came in the colors of the Tulip: red and yellow, primarily. One of them came in the color of the South Seas. In 1929, one arrived in the color of paper, in the form of Stock Certificates. In 2000 and 2007, the key colors were those of Stock Certificates, again. And now, in late 2009, three of them have appeared in the colors of Gold, of Silver, and of Green – that of the Dollar Bill.
Actually, the Dollar Bill Mania is a Mirror-Mania, in that investors have relentlessly driven its price down rather than up. The Mirror-Mania is the inverse image of the Gold and Silver Manias, companions that they are, with Gold taking the lead position. Imagine Gold as the Lone Ranger, and Silver as Tonto. Interestingly, the Lone Ranger’s horse was named “Silver.”
The signs of a Gold Mania are all around us. It has been bid up to prices never before seen, in a frenzy of buying by “investors” large and small. We know that we are dealing with a Mania when the Government of India exchanges U.S. Dollars for Gold at precisely the wrong time; when Harrods offers physical Gold in various shapes and sizes “off the shelf;” when – irrationally and correlatively – the value of the Dollar Index has been driven to new Lows; when buying happens in anticipation of an inflation which is not here and is not coming for a while, because we have to deal with deflation first; when chatter is rampant to the effect that “Gold is the new currency” (i.e., in substitution for the Dollar); and when an agency of the United Nations talks about the necessity of establishing an alternate reserve currency to be based on a “basket” of currencies to be “managed” by the UN itself.
All Manias come to an end; and when they do, “the last state of that man is worse than the first.”
The Gold Mania is just about ready to break. When it does, we can look forward to the price of Gold at well below $700 per ounce.
On the chart:
ADX is high and continues to rise;
Stoch K is high;
Bollinger Percent B is high and is beginning to fall off;
Chandelle 1 and Chandelle 2 are in a “Pinch.”
In combination, these factors present an excellent setup for a price decline.
William Kurtz
November 10, 2009
http://www.candlewave.com
http://www.candlewaveblog.com
http://www.candelaabra.com
http://www.candelaabrablog.com
The Dollar Index compares the value of the U.S. Dollar with a “basket” of foreign currencies. In overseas trading early on October 20, 2009, the Dollar Index made a new Low. Assuming that one desires the value of the U.S. Dollar to rise in relation to other currencies, the new Low in the Index can be counted as “good news.” Why is that so? This is one of those instances where “it’s so bad, it’s good.” My reasoning is based on the clues which are being given off by our “Candelaabra” Indicators, which focus on the waves of the Indicators in relation to each other.
Please note the following conditions on the attached Daily chart of the Dollar Index:
There is a Paunch between ADX and Stoch K.
Bollinger Percent B is reasonably low.
There is a Paunch between Chandelle 1 and Chandelle 2. Chandelle 2 is very low.
By themselves, these conditions are not especially compelling. However, they pretty much repeat themselves on the Weekly chart and also on the Monthly chart, which tells us that the conditions are not anomalies and that an upward reversal may be forming.
There is a slight bullish movement in the Index at this moment. While it is early, we are calling the probability of a turn in the U.S. Dollar occurring right now. The pieces are in place. My suspicion is that the price action which we see so far today is the beginning of a major bull rally, which should take the U.S. Dollar up to at least 85 or 86.
William Kurtz
October 19, 2009
CandleWave, LLC
Email info@candlewave.com
http://www.candlewave.com
http://www.candlewaveblog.com
http://www,candelaabra.com
http://www.candelaabrablog.com
The Dollar Index compares the value of the U.S. Dollar with a “basket” of foreign currencies. In overseas trading early on October 20, 2009, the Dollar Index made a new Low. Assuming that one desires the value of the U.S. Dollar to rise in relation to other currencies, the new Low in the Index can be counted as “good news.”
Why is that so? This is one of those instances where “it’s so bad, it’s good.” My reasoning is based on the clues which are being given off by our “Candelaabra” Indicators, which focus on the waves of the Indicators in relation to each other.
Please note the following conditions on the attached Daily chart of the Dollar Index:
There is a Paunch between ADX and Stoch K.
Bollinger Percent B is reasonably low.
There is a Paunch between Chandelle 1 and Chandelle 2. Chandelle 2 is very low.
By themselves, these conditions are not especially compelling. However, they pretty much repeat themselves on the Weekly chart and also on the Monthly chart, which tells us that the conditions are not anomalies and that an upward reversal may be forming.
There is a slight bullish movement in the Index at this moment. While it is early, we are calling the probability of a turn in the U.S. Dollar occurring right now. The pieces are in place. My suspicion is that the price action which we see so far today is the beginning of a major bull rally, which should take the U.S. Dollar up to at least 85 or 86.
William Kurtz
October 19, 2009
CandleWave, LLC
Email info@candlewave.com
http://www.candlewave.com
http://www.candlewaveblog.com
http://www,candelaabra.com
http://www.candelaabrablog.com
October 16, 2009 – Traders on the USA Exchanges pushed, shoved, grunted, and shoved some more, but it didn’t work. They wanted in the worst way to make the Dow Industrials close above 10000, all to no avail, as the Dow closed at just below 9996 today.
So we’re still beneath that psychological barrier. It’s only a number, but plenty of investors take it seriously.
We could almost tell that it was coming, as the German DAX Index closed lower (earlier than the USA Exchanges, of course), and left in its wake a beautiful, bearish Candlestick “Evening Star” pattern. The DAX does not control the USA markets, of course; but oftentimes it is an accurate predictor of that which follows in the US, so we do take notice.
We think that there is now a very good chance that the Great Rally of 2009 is overwith. Nothing is certain, of course, but it does seem possible that a blowoff top was made yesterday (with dynamic, euphoric action in the last minutes of trading) and that the turn down began today.
If this outlook is correct, today’s move is the precursor of a very strong downmove which will take prices far below their lows of March 6, 2009, and represents the re-emergence of the underlying bear market which has been in effect since October 2007 but which has been in hibernation since the lows of March 6, 2009.
Look out below!
William Kurtz
October 16, 2009
http://www.candlewave.com
http://www.candlewaveblog.com
http://www.candelaabra.com
http://www.candelaabrablog.com
How is the price of a stock or of an Index arrived at?
Imagine a tug-of-war. Not your ordinary run-of-the-mill tug-of-war, but a supersized one.
We’ll start with two ropes, not just one. Tie the ends of the ropes together, resulting, of course, in a knot. Set the ropes on the ground. Now take two more ropes, but don’t tie them together.
Set them on the ground, too, perpendicular to the first two. Tie one end of each of the second set of ropes to the knot which was formed by the joinder of the first set. You will now have 4 rope ends. Repeat 8 more times. You will now have 20 rope ends, laid out in a circle on the ground, and the setup for a monster circular tug-of-war.
Imagine that each rope is an individual stock market Trend. Some of them will be more powerful than others; and each will have a clear idea of which way it prefers to go.
Now populate each of the free ends of the ropes with a team of strong people, and give the “go” signal. Imagine the pulling and hauling and grunting and shouting!
The net result of all of the pulling and hauling and grunting is the location of the central knot. In the same way, the net result of all of the pulling and hauling on the price of a stock or of an Index is its market price.
William Kurtz
October 6, 2009
http://www.candlewaveblog.com
http://www.candlewave.com
http://www.candelaabrablog.com
http://www.candelaabra.com
Page 1 of 912345»...Last »
Improve the web with Nofollow Reciprocity. |
|
![Reblog this post [with Zemanta]](http://img.zemanta.com/reblog_e.png?x-id=c520859c-e5f1-4557-a802-90cb8ebfdecc)
![Reblog this post [with Zemanta]](http://img.zemanta.com/reblog_e.png?x-id=20691972-f634-4ffc-b8da-cfc464f476d4)
![Reblog this post [with Zemanta]](http://img.zemanta.com/reblog_e.png?x-id=1436a457-f3a3-48d9-816f-b34aadbe2dad)
![Reblog this post [with Zemanta]](http://img.zemanta.com/reblog_e.png?x-id=468388ad-1ee9-43c3-abc8-b7ab3f2a3efd)
![Reblog this post [with Zemanta]](http://img.zemanta.com/reblog_e.png?x-id=9e1ddb38-6348-4083-806a-c95103f72c0f)
![Reblog this post [with Zemanta]](http://img.zemanta.com/reblog_e.png?x-id=9e1c0783-9d8b-4448-aea9-68d6a4442c1d)
![Reblog this post [with Zemanta]](http://img.zemanta.com/reblog_e.png?x-id=cfc8c88e-5837-4502-9c5b-d3496a161714)
Recent Comments