CandleWaveBlog.com » Commodities

Train Wreck Coming in Silver

Bill Kurtz — Sat, 23 Apr 2011 01:48:54 +0000

This isn’t a “flight to safety;” this is a flight to ruination. “Safety” has nothing to do with it.
This is gambling, pure and simple. If you choose to be on the end of the “whip” that’s being run by some very deep-pocketed players, that’s your business; but try not to be flung off into the concrete wall, with broken bones and your head bashed in.

The first chart (“ADX Stoch”) shows today’s Silver price and Indicators at the vertical purple line. The ADX is heading toward the sky; the three Stochastic lines are riding the ceiling; and RSI is high. This is a setup for a price advance which is rapidly coming to an end.

The second chart (“Silver Pinch”) shows Indicators “Chandelle 1” and “Chandelle 2” very close together, in a “Kiss” or “Pinch.” This is further confirmation of a price advance which is fast coming to an end.

Someone will be the unlucky one who makes the final purchase, at the highest price that will be recorded. Everyone who can buy will have bought. Then, when there is not one single buyer remaining, the tide will turn and there will be a rush to sell – but there will be nobody who can or will buy.

Barnum had it right.
…..
William Kurtz
April 21, 2011

http://www.CandleWave.com

http://www.Candelaabra.com

CandleWave and Hawkeye Traders Present Trading From Start to Finish

Bill Kurtz — Wed, 28 Apr 2010 02:38:25 +0000

CandleWave and Hawkeye Traders Present

Trading From Start to Finish – THIS EVENING!

This is a Repeat Announcement of a Series of FREE audience-participatory Webinars which are being presented every week on Wednesday evenings through the end of May, from 8:00 PM to 9:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time.

THE NEXT WEBINAR WILL BE PRESENTED THIS EVENING, WEDNESDAY MAY 12, AT 8:00 PM EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME.

WE WILL BE DISCUSSING LAST THURSDAY’S HUGE SELLOFF IN THE STOCK MARKET, AND THE REBOUND SINCE THEN. WE WILL TALK ABOUT THE NEW HIGHS IN GOLD AND IN SILVER; ABOUT THE EURO AND THE POUND – and about many other subjects, too.

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Welcome to the CandleWave and Hawkeye Traders Equities Webinars. William Kurtz will be discussing equity entries and general market direction based on Candelaabra techniques. From Bill’s entries, Anthony Begin will provide exit and defense strategies utilizing Hawkeye ChartTools. Together, Bill and Anthony will instruct traders and investors alike regarding specific areas of entry and how to manage the position to take full advantage of profit potential and protection against risk in every position. It is time for you to take control of your own investment portfolio and stop allowing Wall Street money managers to get rich off your investment dollars. We are here to provide you the tools and the necessary training for you to feel secure and confident in your abilities to control your own financial destiny.

Thank you for registering! We look forward to your joining us THIS EVENING at 8:00 PM EDT.

DON’T FORGET TO SUBMIT YOUR QUESTIONS DURING THE WEBINAR THIS EVENING! We invite your active participation. IF YOU HAVE A QUESTION ABOUT A PARTICULAR STOCK, INDEX, CURRENCY, OR COMMODITY – PLEASE LET US KNOW – AND WE WILL RESPOND RIGHT AWAY, DURING THE WEBINAR.

Sincerely,

William Kurtz
Anthony Begin

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Candlesticks and Head & Shoulders Top are Bearish for Silver

admin — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 14:01:28 +0000

Please look at the peak in prices as shown on the accompanying chart of Silver. At the top, we see a nearly perfect Bearish Engulfing Pattern (close enough that I will call it the Real Thing), a tall white bar having its last, dying fling, and a second Bearish Engulfing. Prices declined sharply thereafter.

Later in the slide, we see a Doji Shooting Star at the top of a small rise. It didn’t look very convincing, but look what has happened to prices since.

And to cap it all off, for the first time we think we see the emergence of a bearish Head & Shoulders Top formation. I’ve marked the Left Shoulder, the Head, and the Right Shoulder. The Neckline has not yet formed; and indeed it may not: prices may simply continue sliding lower without a pause.

However, if the Right-Shoulder-Side spotting point for the Neckline should form at or just below the thick horizontal line, then the forecast for Silver would be ominous: 792, round it to 800.

If we continue to see a waterfall of black Candlesticks, it won’t be very long before prices get there. I wouldn’t bet against it.

.,,.

William Kurtz

July 8, 2009

http://www.candelaabra.com

Later in the slide, we see a Doji Shooting Star at the top of a small rise. It didn’t look very convincing, but look what has happened to prices since.

However, if the Right-Shoulder-Side spotting point for the Neckline should form at or just below the thick horizontal line, then the forecast for Silver would be ominous: 792, round it to 800.

If we continue to see a waterfall of black Candlesticks, it won’t be very long before prices get there. I wouldn’t bet against it.

.,,.

William Kurtz

July 8, 2009

http://www.candelaabra.com

Disparities in Candlesticks – Dow, Gold, Bonds

admin — Sat, 04 Jul 2009 18:37:57 +0000

In light of the great selloff in the stock market on July 2, one would have expected that exiting investors would have fled to Gold and to Bonds. They did fly to Bonds, but not to Gold – which declined more than $11; and that leads to a question: What’s going on here?

The answer is that Gold is not the safe haven that it’s cracked up to be. The price of Gold usually advances in times of inflation, along with the price of almost everything else. However, it is deflation that rules today; and it will carry the price of Gold down, together with almost everything else – except Cash.

We expect to see many more black Candlesticks for Gold as deflation continues to tighten its grip on the economy.

Candlestick Hanging Man

admin — Mon, 11 May 2009 23:38:44 +0000

As the probable ending point of a three-wave “a-b-c” upward correction, July mini-Silver closed today at 1394.6, down 4.8. Since the price action over the past 16 days has clearly been a three-wave move rather than five, the conclusion necessarily follows that the major underlying trend is still Down.

Now we need to keep an eye on price action over the next several days. Two days ago, the Candlestick price bar was a Shooting Star, a classically bearish pattern; and the formation today was a Hanging Man, which is also bearish but which requires confirmation tomorrow.

If prices close lower tomorrow, the odds are that prices will now, or very soon, resume their decline to lows far below 1180.

William Kurtz May 11, 2009 http://www.candelaabra.com

The Cotton Club Is Hot Tonight

admin — Sat, 28 Mar 2009 02:44:56 +0000

Cotton is hot. Oh, I know, cotton isn’t usually thought of as producing clothing that’s necessarily warm. But cotton is hot in this sense: its price is about to take a big drop, and that makes for a major opportunity for commodities traders.

In the wholesale (commodities) market, cotton costs about 44 cents per pound. We think that, over the next few months, the price of cotton will decline to at least 38 cents per pound.

That doesn’t sound like much, but the secret is in the numbers. In the cotton market, each one cent rise or fall in the price of cotton is worth $500; which means that if cotton falls from 44 cents per pound to 38 cents, each contract is worth $3,000.

Anyone can learn how to trade commodities such as cotton without risking a nickel – by “paper-trading” until it becomes second nature to you.

www.candlewave.com

Hamburger will be Cheaper

admin — Sun, 22 Mar 2009 01:06:29 +0000

Cattle on the hoof, ready for slaughter, now cost about 84 cents per pound. The difference between that price and what you pay in the supermarket represents all of the additional costs that go into preparing and offering the finished product to you on the cold shelves.

For many reasons, the price of cattle on the hoof is now about to take a big drop. Eventually, this reduction in cost will filter down through the production and delivery system, and will likely result in a lower cost for hamburger at your local market.

There are many commodities which you use every day that are used up and need to be replaced – coffee, sugar, the meats, cotton, cocoa for chocolate, and – of course – gasoline. All of these are traded every day on the commodities markets, which are open and transparent. Everyone should learn how to trade commodities. You can do it without risking any money at all, by “paper trading” as you watch the prices of these goods rise and fall according to supply and demand.

It’s not a one-way street, either. You can make money when prices fall just as easily as you can make money when prices rise. So many people believe that it’s possible to profit only when markets rise, but that just isn’t so. If you have a computer, all you need to do is to subscribe to a service which will send commodities data right to your screen, watch the rise and fall of prices over time, and preferably buy a
“how-to” book or two in order to learn the basics – and you’re off and running in a fascinating new experience that costs nothing in terms of “money on the table” as you learn the ropes by paper-trading.

www.candlewave.com

Japanese Candlestick “Shooting Star” Pattern Warns of Possible Price Selloff

admin — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 02:29:35 +0000

Japanese Candlestick “Shooting Star” Pattern Warns of Possible Price Selloff

Of all of the Candlestick reversal patterns, the “Shooting Star” is regarded as one of the most potent and most reliable. We have a perfect example of the Shooting Star in Crude Oil yesterday, March 9. One could hardly wish ever to see a better example than this.

Not every Candlestick pattern works every time. Nevertheless, the record of the Shooting Star is so good that whenever a classic example such as this one appear, those who know its implications sit up and take notice.

http://www.candlesticksonsteroids.com

March 10, 2009

A Perfect Japanese Candlestick “Shooting Star” in Crude Oil Today

admin — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 00:32:58 +0000

A Perfect Japanese Candlestick “Shooting Star” in Crude Oil Today – Let’s See Whether It Works

There are several price patterns in Japanese Candlestick theology which are considered to be quite reliable. Among them is the “Shooting Star” pattern, in which the total price action of the particular time period lies well above the price action of previous days. Its particular characteristic is a small “real body” at the bottom end of the total price action during the time period and, especially, a tall “shadow,” or “tail,” at the top of the pattern, which shows a price excursion far above the real body.

It makes perfect sense that this pattern is called a “Shooting Star,” because that’s exactly what it looks like! When it appears, it’s easy to spot.

One such Shooting Star appeared today in the price action of the April contract of Crude Oil. Most Candlestick practitioners would likely look upon it as a “sell” signal.

There it is; it’s a perfect example of the breed; and tomorrow we will see whether it “works” this time.

William Kurtz

CandleWave, LLC

info@candlewave.com

http://www.candlesticksonsteroids.com

In Commodities, Timing is Everything

admin — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 03:45:38 +0000

In Commodities, Timing is Everything

There are two articles in he paper this morning about Crude Oil. One article tells us that the world is awash in Crude Oil, and that the world is running out of places to store it.

The second article urges us to buy an oil Exchange Traded Fund right now, and hold it for future gains.

The problem with the second story has to do with timing of the purchase. From the indications that I have, the price of Crude has not stopped falling, and that before the decline is over, the price of Crude will have fallen to less than $30 per barrel. So, it all depends on the investor’s sense of timing, and how long he is willing to wait for the payoff.

I think the author of the second article is correct when he calls for Crude to rise to $75, and after that “the sky is the limit.” Right now, in the midst of an oil depression, oil companies are cutting back on their expenditures to find new sources of oil. They should be doing the exact opposite now. Advantage should be taken of the availability of rigs and crews to ramp up exploration, not cut it back.

The price of not exploring now will be paid later, when the tables turn and there is, once again, a mad scramble for equipment and skilled talent – and it will become scarce and expensive.

http://www.candlesticksonsteroids.com