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“Tokyo Express” Bullish Japanese Candlestick Reversal Pattern

admin — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 15:09:47 +0000

The “Tokyo Express” Bullish Japanese Candlestick Reversal Warning Pattern was the very pattern which foretold the immediate ignition of the Great Rally of 2009-2010-2011 in early March 2009. It surely proved its predictive worth in that instance; and now we have another fine example, in January 2012.

The shares of Arcos Dorados Holdings had been in a long downtrend. Then a four-bar Reversal Warning Pattern appeared, in which the first of the four price bars was a tall black candle, signifying a strong Down day; then a bar containing a small “Real Body” (called the “Star”) near the bottom of the tall black candle; then another “Star” near the bottom of the tall black candle; and finally a tall white candle, signifying a strong Up day. This pattern is the “Tokyo Express,” which is bullish. A more perfect example of the “Tokyo Express” would have shown the two “Stars” below the lowest extremities of the tall black candle and of the tall white candle. Even considering this example’s lack of perfection, we can readily see that its bullish implications were justified, as prices rose from a low of $17.62 to a high of $22.99 within a space of 15 days from completion of the pattern. It’s hard to argue with the result!

The “Tokyo Express” is a variation of the “Morning Star” Reversal Warning Pattern. Whereas the “Tokyo Express” contains two “Stars” situated between the tall black candle and the tall white candle, the “Morning Star” contains only one of them. I recognize the “Tokyo Express” pattern as an individual, separate, and legitimate Japanese Candlestick Reversal Warning Pattern in its own right, not merely as a variation of the “Morning Star” pattern.

William Kurtz

http://www.CandlesticksOnSteroids.com

February 9, 2012

Deja Vu All Over Again: Candlesticks and Price Waves Reveal That May 2011 Is September 1930

Bill Kurtz — Sun, 29 May 2011 14:22:05 +0000

The progression of major up-and-down price movements in the Dow Industrials following the High of 2000 has been the same as that which followed the High of 1929 – except that, this time, the amplitude of the waves has been much greater, and the length of time expended in their development has been much greater, too. All through the progression of the price waves in each case, we see Candlestick Reversal Patterns which accurately foretold the next move.

That is to be expected, because the High of 2000 was one degree higher than the High of 1929. Apart from that, their “DNA” was the same.

A comparison of the Dow Industrials charts for the two periods is quite revealing. Whereas I used a Monthly chart for 1929 and the years subsequent thereto, for display purposes it was necessary to use a Quarterly chart for 2000 and the years which followed, because the time spans in the latter case are so much longer.

Here’s the key:

March 2000 compares to September 1929;

December 2002 compares to November 1929;

October 2007 compares to April 1930;

March 2009 compares to June 1930;

May 2011 compares to September 1930.

Please notice the difference in those time spans. For example, a price movement which evolved over three or four months (June-September) in 1930 has taken more than two years (March 2009 to the present), and prices are still searching for the final top. In each case, in one or more time spans we find a Candlestick Reversal Pattern predicting the next move.

After the Crash Low in November 1929, prices bounced to April 1930 in a matter of five months, retracing only to the extent of about 50% of the Crash. On the other hand, after the deep falloff into the December 2002 Low which followed the 2000 top, the subsequent bounce to the High in October 2007 far surpassed the 2000 top; and that bounce took about five years to run to completion.

After those bounce-peaks of April 1930 and October 2007, prices then fell into June 1930 and March 2009, respectively. Following that June 1930 Low, the Dow retraced only a little more than 38.2% of that decline, leading to the High of September 1930; while now, its “cousin” wave has retraced more than 78.6%.

After the Dow’s meager advance into the High of September 1930, prices descended persistently into the Depression years of 1931 and 1932.

Right now, in May 2011, we are at the top of the bounce which is the equivalent of the one which topped in September 1930. May 2011 is September 1930 all over again.

We can expect that the next major price move will equate to the one which followed the High of September 1930 – except that it will dig deeper and it will take longer.

…..

It can be argued that the High of October 2007, rather than the High of early 2000, was the fifth wave of Supercycle degree which we had been awaiting. If that be so, then the decline from the October 2007 High to the March 2009 Low was either a first wave Down or an “a” wave Down, and the current upwave from the March 2009 Low is either a second wave Up which is now in the process of ending, or a “b” wave Up which may have a distance yet to travel. Either way, the next major downwave, whether it is to be a third wave Down or a “c” wave Down, will carry prices far below the Low of March 2009. The Monthly, Weekly, and Daily charts of the Dow Industrials already reveal Candlestick Reversal Patterns which foretell a major downmove.

William Kurtz

CandleWave, LLC

http://www.CandleWave.com
http://www.Candelaabra.com
http://www.CandelaabraBlog.com

May 26, 2011

Make Or Break Time In The Stock Indexes

Bill Kurtz — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 14:26:10 +0000

The Dow Industrials Index embarked upon what should be its final “power wave” on March 17, 2011. The Index surpassed its February 18 High (although the S&P 500 has not). After the first three days of a spirited rise, the Dow’s upward momentum began to tail off. The diminution of momentum has now progressed to the point at which the Index has formed the beginnings of a “rounded top.”
The Dow closed Down more than 17 points today, leaving yesterday’s High in place.
If the Dow were to rise to 12541 before stopping, that would be a natural point for a top and a reversal because it would mark the 78.6% retracement level of its decline from the all-time High of October 2007 to the Low of early March 2009. That particular percentage is one that is dictated by Nature, not by humans, and is one of a stable of natural reversal levels that we very often see.
The Dow had stopped rising at another one that stable of levels – 61.8% – in April 2010, which led us to believe that the Great Rally probably had ended at that point. However, the market had other ideas; whereupon it has set out on a voyage which appears to have the 78.6% retracement level as its target.
It isn’t there yet, but it is only about 130 points shy of it. Now the question is, in spite of the diminution of momentum that we see, as evidenced by the developing rounded top, and in spite of the slight selloff today, will the Dow now find enough energy to rise to the 78.6% retracement level before calling it a day?
William Kurtz
April 8, 2011

http://www.CandleWave.com

http://www.Candelaabra.com

http://www.CandlesticksForBrighties.com

Re-Confirmed: The Bullish Candlestick Signal in the Dollar Index

Bill Kurtz — Sun, 13 Feb 2011 12:59:26 +0000

The bullish confirmation signal of a week ago has been re-confirmed today by prices advancing to a new High.

There is no longer any doubt that the tall white candle was just an aberration, that it was simply a bump in a long downtrend.

We now have “Wave 1 Up,” “Wave 2 Down,” and the start of “Wave 3 Up.” We know that “third waves” are especially potent.

Within the red box, the tall black candle signified a strong Down day (the Open was at the top of the black portion, the “Real Body,” and the Close was at the bottom thereof). The small body of the next bar showed little difference between the Open and the Close, thereby indicating “indecision.” The next bar, the tall white bar, displayed a turnabout in traders’ thinking. The Open was at the bottom of the “Real Body,” while the Close was at the top thereof. It was a strong “Up” day.

The first confirmation of the bullishness of this three-day pattern occurred on the day following the tall white candle, when prices closed higher in another white candle. The second confirmation occurred today, when prices broke through after a short correction and made a new High.

Prices should now be targeting the High of early October, and 89 thereafter.

William Kurtz
February 11, 2011

http://www.Candlesticksforbrighties.com

http://www.candlewaveblog.com

CandleWave and Hawkeye Traders Present Trading From Start to Finish

Bill Kurtz — Wed, 28 Apr 2010 02:38:25 +0000

CandleWave and Hawkeye Traders Present

Trading From Start to Finish – THIS EVENING!

This is a Repeat Announcement of a Series of FREE audience-participatory Webinars which are being presented every week on Wednesday evenings through the end of May, from 8:00 PM to 9:00 PM Eastern Daylight Time.

THE NEXT WEBINAR WILL BE PRESENTED THIS EVENING, WEDNESDAY MAY 12, AT 8:00 PM EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME.

WE WILL BE DISCUSSING LAST THURSDAY’S HUGE SELLOFF IN THE STOCK MARKET, AND THE REBOUND SINCE THEN. WE WILL TALK ABOUT THE NEW HIGHS IN GOLD AND IN SILVER; ABOUT THE EURO AND THE POUND – and about many other subjects, too.

Confirmation and information will arrive shortly in your inbox.

SEND IN YOUR QUESTIONS DURING THE WEBINAR!

Welcome to the CandleWave and Hawkeye Traders Equities Webinars. William Kurtz will be discussing equity entries and general market direction based on Candelaabra techniques. From Bill’s entries, Anthony Begin will provide exit and defense strategies utilizing Hawkeye ChartTools. Together, Bill and Anthony will instruct traders and investors alike regarding specific areas of entry and how to manage the position to take full advantage of profit potential and protection against risk in every position. It is time for you to take control of your own investment portfolio and stop allowing Wall Street money managers to get rich off your investment dollars. We are here to provide you the tools and the necessary training for you to feel secure and confident in your abilities to control your own financial destiny.

Thank you for registering! We look forward to your joining us THIS EVENING at 8:00 PM EDT.

DON’T FORGET TO SUBMIT YOUR QUESTIONS DURING THE WEBINAR THIS EVENING! We invite your active participation. IF YOU HAVE A QUESTION ABOUT A PARTICULAR STOCK, INDEX, CURRENCY, OR COMMODITY – PLEASE LET US KNOW – AND WE WILL RESPOND RIGHT AWAY, DURING THE WEBINAR.

Sincerely,

William Kurtz
Anthony Begin

IF YOU HAVEN’T ALREADY DONE SO,

Once you have registered, you will receive an email confirming your registration with information that you will need in order to join the Webinars.

System Requirements:

PC-based attendees

Required: Windows® 7, Vista, XP, 2003 Server or 2000

Macintosh®-based attendees

Required: Mac OS® X 10.4.11 (Tiger® or newer

Kiss Your Pension Checks Good-Bye

Bill Kurtz — Wed, 10 Mar 2010 18:24:46 +0000

Las Vegas is Welcomed at the Door of Pension Fund Management.

“Make It All Back by Doubling Down.”

Right.

Make a photocopy of your next pension check. Then frame it, put it in a safe place, and be ready to retrieve it and hang it on the wall as a memento of days gone by.

The lead story in The New York Times today (March 9, 2010) informs us that pension funds which are operated by certain States and companies have begun to move their investments out of domestic stocks and into riskier investments such as offshore stocks (presumably, some of those are stocks based in “emerging economies”), junk bonds, commodity futures, and securities which are backed by questionable mortgages. However, it is inaccurate to label these devices as “investments.” This process ought to be called by its correct name: “gambling.” It is emblematic of the perennial search for “yield.”

There are least two reasons for the shift in attention: 1) pension funds were badly hurt by the falloff in the stock market from October 2007 to early March 2009; and have not fully recovered during the Great Rally of 2009; 2) the funds’ assumptions of the return which would flow from their portfolio is wildly optimistic in the real world, and has been so for decades.

Therein lies a Great Lie, and a Great Cover-Up. Pension funds are desperate to avoid having to (or being forced to) lower their assumptions of portfolio return, for to do that would necessitate massive infusions of Cash into the funds’ trust accounts in order to bring their future payout obligations into line with reality – and many pension funds, especially those which are operated by the States, simply do not have the money, or any prospect of acquiring it.

States, in particular, are particularly adept at lying to their own people.

The recession is far from over. We are staring into the face of a full-blown Depression, more severe than the Depression of the 1930’s. This entire edifice of lies, deception, and desperate risk-taking will inevitably collapse when these so-called “investments” fall into the gutter, as they surely will. We can look forward to short-changed pension checks, to be followed by civic unrest including strikes by present and future government retirees from the ranks of the teachers, police, firemen, other professionals, and office workers. What had been thought to be unbreakable contracts as absolute guarantees of security will turn out to be fictions.

There is no easy way out. There may not be any way out at all, easy or otherwise. The money is not there, and will not be there, to make up the deficit in promised future obligations, even under present assumptions of portfolio return on investment; and the money is not there, and will not be there, to make up the shortfall which would result from bringing those assumptions into line with reality.

This is a ticking time bomb which can only result in disaster. Frame a copy of your next pension check. You will able to look upon it and say “Those were the days.” If you’re not receiving a pension check as yet, plan ahead on the basis that you may never receive the first one.

William Kurtz

March 9, 2010

http://www.candlewave.com

http://www.candelaabra.com

http://www.candelaabrablog.com

Geithner’s Bailout – Is The Taxpayer Really Represented?

admin — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 15:19:26 +0000

I have a major problem with the Geithner bail-out proposal: No one seems to be looking out for the interest of the citizen taxpayer.

As Professor Stiglitz pointed out so tellingly yesterday in his Op-Ed piece in the New York Times, the Geithner plan will work only if the taxpayer takes a huge shellacking.

That leads to the question: Exactly who is representing the taxpayer here? The Secretary of the Treasury is supposedly the head executive of the Treasury Department, taking care of the welfare of the general public in all that he does. Yet, as Professor Stiglitz points out, the Secretary’s bailout plan is rigged greatly in favor of the banks and against the best interests of the public.

Perhaps the Treasury Department ought to be under the watch of an independent Ombudsman who is not an employee of the Department, whose only stated job is to look out for the welfare of the taxpayer in all that the Department does.

Japanese Candlestick “Shooting Star” Pattern Warns of Possible Price Selloff

admin — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 02:29:35 +0000

Japanese Candlestick “Shooting Star” Pattern Warns of Possible Price Selloff

Of all of the Candlestick reversal patterns, the “Shooting Star” is regarded as one of the most potent and most reliable. We have a perfect example of the Shooting Star in Crude Oil yesterday, March 9. One could hardly wish ever to see a better example than this.

Not every Candlestick pattern works every time. Nevertheless, the record of the Shooting Star is so good that whenever a classic example such as this one appear, those who know its implications sit up and take notice.

http://www.candlesticksonsteroids.com

March 10, 2009

A Perfect Japanese Candlestick “Shooting Star” in Crude Oil Today

admin — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 00:32:58 +0000

A Perfect Japanese Candlestick “Shooting Star” in Crude Oil Today – Let’s See Whether It Works

There are several price patterns in Japanese Candlestick theology which are considered to be quite reliable. Among them is the “Shooting Star” pattern, in which the total price action of the particular time period lies well above the price action of previous days. Its particular characteristic is a small “real body” at the bottom end of the total price action during the time period and, especially, a tall “shadow,” or “tail,” at the top of the pattern, which shows a price excursion far above the real body.

It makes perfect sense that this pattern is called a “Shooting Star,” because that’s exactly what it looks like! When it appears, it’s easy to spot.

One such Shooting Star appeared today in the price action of the April contract of Crude Oil. Most Candlestick practitioners would likely look upon it as a “sell” signal.

There it is; it’s a perfect example of the breed; and tomorrow we will see whether it “works” this time.

William Kurtz

CandleWave, LLC

info@candlewave.com

http://www.candlesticksonsteroids.com

Did The Candlesticks Tell Us Today That There Is Light At The End Of The Tunnel?

admin — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 13:15:46 +0000

Did The Candlesticks Tell Us Today That There Is Light At The End Of The Tunnel?

The investing world has watched in horrified fascination, week after week, as the stock indexes have continued down a slippery slope all the way down to 6627 on the Dow Industrials. With only the briefest of respites, the trend has been down, down, down on a sharp angle. Our Indicators show that pressure underneath prices, tending to push them higher, has continued to build; and that – from a technical standpoint – there is plenty of room for prices to move higher.

It is interesting to note that, even though prices today closed lower than three days ago, the ADX indicator has eased off a bit, which tends to show a relaxation of pressure. The most telling clues of all, though, are the Candlestick patterns of today’s price action.

For example, the pattern today in the Dow Industrials is a “High-Wave Spinning Top,” which is a warning of a possible change in the direction of trend from Down to Up. Nearly the same pattern appears in the S&P 500, except that the spread between the open and the close is less than two points, which permits us to identify this pattern as a “High-Wave Doji,” which is at least as compelling as the
“High-Wave Spinning Top” as a Candlestick predictor of trend change. The S&P 100 shows us a High-Wave Doji in which the spread between the open and the close was only nine hundredths of a point! The patterns in the S&P Smallcap 600 and in the Russell 2000 are extremely close imitations of one or the other of the “High-Wave Spinning Top” or of the “High-Wave Doji.”

The end of the story has not yet been written, of course; but these patterns tend to give us some hope that the insistent slide in Index prices may be coming to a halt, and that the trend might even reverse to the upside.

http://www.candlesticksonsteroids.com March 6, 2009